Another Friday and SanibelSusan here with another island real estate report. First a photo of what it looks like here on a sunny Sanibel afternoon.
This week, the Saharan dust covering much of Florida has kept rain away from the islands. There have been a few showers, but nothing like usual peak storm season. Driving across the causeway, the hazy view over the water reminded me of growing up on the Maine seashore and how it looked before morning fog burned off. Now, that dust is moving away from Florida, so weather likely will return to a more typical September weather-pattern with daytime temps expected to be in the low- to mid-80’s with chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Now through the weekend, we also may see some wind from Hurricane Ida passing out in the Gulf, no real concern for SW Florida though.
Florida Realtors® Annual Convention
I sure hated to miss this event in-person again this year, but thankfully with new Covid-protocols still was able to participate electronically. Florida Realtors 2021 Convention and Trade Expo is being held August 24-28 at the Rosen Shingle Creek in Orlando.
Yesterday, in between classes, was the Annual Awards luncheon. It was great to hear that some friends were acknowledged and rewarded: Congratulations to 2021 Realtor® of the Year – Florida Realtors® 2020 President Barry Grooms from Bradenton, 2021 Humanitarian of the Year – Steven David from Broward, Palm Beaches, and St Lucie Realtors®, and to our 2021 District 5 VP – Ursula Weinkauff from Bonita Springs. They all excelled in a challenging year as they have for many years.
Today, our local Sanibel & Captiva Islands Association of Realtors® Director of Education, Megan Rose, is sitting on the Florida Realtors® Audition Panel for the Professional Development Committee, evaluating candidates looking to teach state-approved classes. I sure enjoyed doing that for many years and know Megan will do a great job representing us. She will have a long tiring but fulfilling day. It is great process to ensure that Florida’s teachers are top-notch.
Tonight is the annual in-person Florida Realtors® 2021 PAC live auction. You-know-who has been bidding electronically all week on silent auction items. Tomorrow, the event wraps up with a Candidate Forum, Member Update, and the individual District meetings, followed by the Board of Directors Meeting.
At the Sanibel & Captiva Islands Association of Realtors®
There was no caravan meeting this week for the islands Association of Realtors®, but some real estate activity still was posted in the local Multiple Listing Service. The action follows a coupe of news items below.
At SanibelSusan Realty
Happily, The SanibelSusan Team has two closings before the end of the month, so Dave and I will be busy with those over the weekend and early next week. We both remarked this morning about how little traffic is on the island now. At quitting time last night, I went home the back way (west on Periwinkle to Tarpon Bay Rd north to Gulf Dr to the east end to Periwinkle) and didn’t pass a single car going in either direction until I got to just before the turn-off to my street. Even then, only saw one work truck heading off-island. Dave said it was little later when he left Lighthouse Beach, to head off island. He also didn’t see other vehicles. Where is everyone? September usually is the quietest month on the islands, appears that late-August is getting ready.
The Market Outlook – Nationally & More
Tuesday, I attended a Zoom presentation given at the National Association Leadership Summit in Chicago by NAR’s Chief Economist and Senior VP of Research, Lawrence Yun. As a long-time fan, it was interesting to hear his take on the pandemic, today’s housing shortage, and what he thinks the real estate future will bring.
He prefaced his speech saying that 99% of the country is experiencing a double-digit price change in their median priced home.
Then, he began with “when does this pandemic end?” He reiterated that though it has been over 100 years since the Spanish flu pandemic, through history pandemics have been a common phenomenon, a human experience. One that will not be done and over when this pandemic subsides. The Delta variant being a good example of that.
Looking at today’s statistics compared to recent history, one of his first slides showed that for the first time in decades, in the U.S., birth and death rates are equal. He referred to past forecasters who said that when the baby boomer generation starts dying out, U.S. population will decrease. That is looking to be true, though this data does not include those immigrating here and coming across borders illegally.
He then described how today’s housing shortage is a different kind from recent history when there were not enough actual homes for the housing demand. Today, rental prices are skyrocketing and expected to soar even higher. He gave examples where rental properties are getting multiple offers. Today, there is a historic shortage of rental vacancies, while the number of rental households is at an all-time high (mostly because those renters can’t compete with the offers from today’s buyers).
Existing homes sales (which traditionally are 90% of that market) are still above pre-pandemic levels, but not as frenzied as they were a few months ago. Newly-constructed-home sales (usually 10% of the market), now are just matching pre-pandemic levels.
Though interest rates still are historically low (less than 3%), mortgage applications from those looking to buy are below pre-pandemic levels. Why is this? It is because all-cash sales are elevated. Cash is king with cash sales ruling the market, essentially everywhere.
With most median home prices up over 20% in the last year, rental demand has gone up as most 1st-time buyers now are priced out of the market. Monthly mortgage payments are rising even at time when interest rates are at their lowest.
Though mortgage debt is at a record high, the record high property valuations should overwhelm any risk, so he says there is no worry of the market being over leveraged.
Comparing geographic areas, it was interesting to see where local market homeowner wealth gained over the last year. The highest equity gain was in the San Francisco Bay area where the average property increase was $160K. Unfortunately, this appreciation is not enjoyed across the population, as only 45% of San Francisco residents own. Like anywhere, homeownership rates vary across geographic areas, age groups, ethnicity, etc.
In comparing home occupant wealth, his slides showed how the average renter has a nest egg of only about $8K while the average property owner has $297K.
He made a point of mentioning of how the news media using old data does not help us understand the market – and how you cannot always believe what you hear. Particularly, considering the 2020 census numbers, that data does not reflect where people live and work today with so many fleeing cities to work in the suburbs or more preferred areas.
He had a slide showing the metro areas with the most net migration gains since the first of the year, and interestingly most of those are in vacation areas. For example, the places with the highest population increase year-to-date include Barnstable, MA (Cape Cod), Portland (ME), Myrtle Beach (SC), Asheville and Wilmington (NC), Huntsville (AL), Jacksonville (FL), and others. Another tidbit he mentioned was that Huntsville has the highest number of PhD’s in the nation. (Who knew?)
What will these vacation areas show for 2021? He said they all are experiencing a sizeable jump in sales, which is exactly what has happened here on Sanibel and Captiva.
What will the future bring? He said that housing demand should be compared to where people with jobs are doing their jobs.
As inflation increases the Fed will be forced sooner to make changes. When that happens, he expects that negative effects will occur from the Federal Reserve, who provides monetary policy, gradually increasing mortgage rates. He sees a tapering of purchases of mortgage-backed securities later this year, short-term rates rising next year, and an inevitable increase in G-fees to cover Congress’s infrastructure package. (A G-fee is the gurantee-fee to cover projected credit losses from borrower defaults over the life of loans, admin costs, and a return on capital.)
A positive effect will come from more first-time buyers qualifying for a mortgage as they have demonstrated financial capability from renting longer. (Big data also will help show their payment capability, with so many creating a financial trail through their use of Amazon Prime, Netflix, etc.)
Inflation already is popping out and is not going to go away. He predicts high inflation will continue. Already many of us are seeing price increases in used cars, gas, airfares, appliances, and the like.
The Government says rents are rising at 1.9% annually, but he provided info from national rental organizations showing that increases are more like 6, 7, and 8%, probably an indication that the Government also is under estimating inflation.
As the pandemic wanes, sales to foreign buyers and immigrants will pick up.
In the commercial arena, office space usage is shaky, particularly in downtown areas where many cities, like New York and Chicago, have high vacancies.
Industrial spaces, on the other hand, are booming. Retail spaces are coming back as buying improves, while apartment spaces also are coming back strong.
In his wrap-up, he likened the economy internationally to the winners of the Olympic gold medals, showing how through history those with the most medals were the most economically strong. We might have received the most medals in the Olympics this year, but China is a close second. Followed by Japan, before Great Britain. There is a message in that. Stay tuned.
Sanibel & Captiva Islands Multiple Listing Service Activity August 20-27, 2021
Sanibel
CONDOS
3 new listings: Blind Pass #A102 2/2 $630K, Sanibel Arms West #E3 2/2 $965K, Gulfside Place #210 2/2 $1.495M.
No price changes.
3 new sales: Sanibel Moorings #211 1/1 listed at $525K, Breakers West #C3 2/2 listed at $749K, Gulf Beach #207 2/2 listed at $1.1M.
3 closed sales: Sanibel Moorings #921 1/1 $435K, Sanibel Inn #3511 2/2 $695.1K, Kings Crown #102 2/2 $1.55M.
HOMES
1 new listing: 4771 Tradewinds Dr 3/3 $3.35M.
2 price changes: 1025 S. Yachtsman Dr 3/2 listed at $820K, 5747 Pine Tree Dr 3/3 $1.799M.
8 new sales: 837 Casa Ybel Rd 2/2 duplex listed at $599.9K, 5802 Sanibel-Captiva Rd 3/3.5 listed at $899K, 4760 Rue Helene 3/2 listed at $1.325M, 4954 Joewood Dr 3/2 listed at $1.599M, 5379 Shearwater Dr 4/3 listed at $2.149M, 2475 Tropical Way Ct 3/3.5 listed at $2.295M, 856 Limpet Dr 4/2.5 listed at $2.358M, 4014 West Gulf Dr 4/4 listed at $3.849M.
1 closed sale: 734 Anchor Dr 3/2 $1.55M.
LOTS
No new listings.
1 price change: 5642 Baltusrol Ct now $369K.
1 new sale: 1272 Par View Dr listed at $459K.
No closed sales.
Captiva
CONDOS
No new listings, price changes, or new sales.
2 closed sales: Tennis Villas #3127 1/1 $385K, Captiva Hide-a-Way #1D 2/2 $1.032M.
HOMES & LOTS
Nothing to report.
This representation is based in part on data supplied by the Sanibel & Captiva Islands Association of Realtors® Multiple Listing Service. Neither the association nor its MLS guarantees or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the association or its MLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. The information provided represents the general real estate activity in the community and does not imply that SanibelSusan Realty Associates is participating or participated in these transactions.
Until next Friday,
Susan Andrews, aka SanibelSusan
Today (August 20, 2021) on Sanibel, there are 13 condos, 27 homes, and 17 lots for sale.
Plenty of social media postings about the changes on the causeway islands have not been positive, mostly because the public is not aware of what is happening there. Here is an update:
Unfortunately, Lee Health Hospitals posted yesterday that it was their highest day of COVID fatalities. Traveling nurses arrived this week to assist in their patient overload.
This morning the City Manager posted the following message on the City website: “City of Sanibel Recreation Center to Remain Closed Saturday, August 21, 2021 All Programs Cancelled. Last evening, Thursday, August 19, the City of Sanibel was advised that a participant who utilized the Sanibel Recreation Center yesterday had tested positive for COVID. Today, Friday, August 20, the City of Sanibel Recreation Center, 3380 Sanibel-Captiva Rd, is closed for all programs and services while the facility is disinfected. Currently City staff continue to contact trace all persons who were at the facility yesterday. The City of Sanibel Recreation Center will remain closed tomorrow, Saturday, August 21. The sole program scheduled for the Recreation Tomorrow, Tiny Tots Basketball, is also cancelled.”
From this week’s, “Ding on The Wing”: “Starting this week and running through September, the Refuge Visitor and Education Center will be closed both Friday and Sunday each week, due to volunteer dropout over COVID-19 concerns. The Center is open 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. Monday through Thursday, and Saturday.
As posted in the “Island Sun”, the island Chamber of Commerce has received approval from The City to celebrate Luminary 2021 in traditional fashion on December 3 and 4. The Sanibel celebration will be Friday and the Captiva Saturday. Besides candle-lined walkways and shared-use paths, the festivities bring live music, decorations, sidewalk sales, and complimentary refreshments. 
business collection held at the county’s permanent Household Chemical Waste drop-off location at 6441 Topaz Ct which is off Metro Parkway in Fort Myers.
Posted August 13, 2021, on FloridaRealtors®:
With Florida real estate in increased demand from domestic buyers, sale prices high, and inventory limited, some agents have had success with “pocket listings”, a process that allows an agent to quietly market a property on a one-to-one basis to individual buyers and colleagues, before (or without) posting it on the Multiple Listing Service.
Lee County Schools begin their fall session Tuesday (August 10), while the last day of the school year will be later than usual next spring, on Thursday, June 2. 
There has not been a lot of new real estate action this week, probably weather and summer-time related, but likely because inventory continues to be low. At the Sanibel & Captiva Islands Association of Realtors
The Sanibel School is accepting new students and does not require that they live on-island. With an “A” rating and designated a School of Excellence by the Florida Department of Education, the K-8 campus provides an exceptional learning environment for its students, and the array of programs available is comparable with even the largest schools in the district. For more about enrollment and the waiver process, or to set up a tour, call registrar Donna Marks at 239-472-1617 or email 
Sanibel received notice this week from Lee County of scheduled preventative maintenance work at the Sanibel Toll Facility. Work will be performed beginning Monday, August 23, between 7:30 a.m. and 5 p.m. Monday through Saturday and is expected to continue until September 3. No work will be done during Labor Day weekend.
Usually, mid-August is when the Lee County Property Appraiser’s office mails out annual TRIM notices to property owners. TRIM stands for “Truth in Millage” and is the official notice, required by state law, of the proposed property taxes.
Sanibel’s draft budget for the next fiscal year – October 1, 2021 through September 30, 2022 was prepared with an operating millage rate of 1.8922 which is the same rate that was assessed to taxpayers last year. The City Finance Director recently advised City Council that the 2021 budget was prepared when the effects of the pandemic on economy were unknown. Since then, better-than-expected revenues and expense-saving initiatives in preceding years have put the City in a good economic position heading into this budget cycle. The 2022 draft budget is 12.1% higher than the adopted budget for fiscal year 2021.
As posted this week in “News from “Ding” Darling Wildlife Society: “For the first time since pandemic lockdown, Tarpon Bay Explorers, the Refuge recreation concession, has resumed its Breakfast Cruises and Touch Tank sessions. The morning cruises which run Wednesdays at 8:30 a.m., tour around Tarpon Bay in pursuit of wildlife such as birds, manatees, and dolphins. Participants enjoy a continental-style breakfast during the cruise, including freshly made doughnuts from Bailey’s General Store with coffee, tea, or orange juice. The last half hour is spent at the Touch Tank where guests get a hands-on experience to learn about the wildlife that lives beneath bay waters.”
Those visiting Captiva might want to take note of the following parking lot closures from the island beach re-nourishment project underway. Designed to last about eight to ten years, the re-nourishment project is expected to provide the necessary maintenance to counteract long-term critical erosion of Captiva’s beaches, properties, and shorelines.
The Rec Center was closed this week and will remain closed through Sunday (August 8) to complete annual maintenance projects. It reopens Monday August 9.
There was lots of social media chatter this week about the Australian pines coming down on the causeway islands. Here’s the full report by Wendy McMullen that was posted on the front page of today’s “Island Sun”:
Welcome to another Friday real estate update. The Sanibel & Captiva Islands market remains “hot” with the below summary showing the status of inventory today, sales year-to-date, sales last year, and for comparison, sales in the peak price year, 2006. (Note info based on The Sanibel & Captiva Islands Multiple Listing Service. Prices “for sale” and “under contract” are asking prices.)
It also appears that our summer visitor traffic remains high. Yesterday, the City issued their first summer high-traffic notice, after 5,500 vehicles had crossed the causeway before noon. That much oncoming traffic typically results in late afternoon slowdowns. When in doubt, check Sanibel’s traffic cams at 
From NAR’s Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, as posted in the July-August 2021 “Realtor” magazine:
“Tropical Storm Elsa’s strong southern winds caused 125 sea turtle nests on Sanibel and Captiva to lose their marking stakes and protective screens. Sea turtle staff members have been working diligently over the last week to confirm whether the eggs washed away, too, or if they are still buried in the sand.
“On July 8, the Captiva Erosion Prevention District reported that the beach re-nourishment project’s start was being coordinated with its contractor, Great Lakes Dredge and Dock, and the resource agencies. Following recent and ongoing planning discussions, construction is now projected to start no earlier than August 26, pending all notice-to-proceed approvals from the agencies….
Sanibel
Though some are disappointment that there will not be a holiday parade or fireworks on Sanibel, the precautions are understood and appreciated. We still can decorate though – so, as usual, SanibelSusan Realty will be decked out in red, white, and blue as thankful freedom reminders.
After that, the Sanibel-Captiva Optimist Club’s 41st Annual Road Rally will line-up for a noon start time at The Timbers Restaurant parking lot. To sign up for the 2021 Freedom Road Rally, contact Randy Carson at 
On 4th of July, there is a celebration at American Legion Post #123, 4249 San-Cap Rd with free hot dogs served all day, plus music by The Marty Stokes Band from 3 to 6 p.m.
As locals and visitors tentatively watch what is happening south of Florida with Tropical Storm Elsa, it was great news to read this week’s email update from the Sanibel-Captiva Conservation Foundation. Here it is, titled “Green Sea Turtles Return to Nest on Sanibel”:
As we all have watched the devastation on Florida East Coast, this article posted Wed on FloridaRealtors® is sourced to 2021 “Miami Herald” and distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC. There is some interested info in the article.
Wishing you and yours a safe and happy July 4th holiday weekend.
SanibelSusan reporting that the good news this week is that the rainy season has begun in SW Florida. Not that we like to see a lot of run-off which in years past has affected local water quality, but the island bunnies which I love – like it when tropical vegetation is green and lush, not yellow and crunchy. It was great to see several of these little critters out enjoying my lawn Thurs morning after our first “big” rain Wed night.
Here at SanibelSusan Realty, teammate Dave returns to the office Mon, while I now have a plan of action for my sore knee with a quick surgical procedure scheduled next week to repair a torn meniscus. How handy is it that Island Therapy is right next door to my office? I am all set to be up and ru
This week CROW (Clinic for the Rehabilitation of Wildlife) announced that Wildlife Walk guided hospital tours and daily presentations are back. The guided hospital tours provide an opportunity for visitors to get an in-depth look into the inner workings of CROW’s hospital and the treatment process of over 5,000 wildlife patients each year. The 1-1/2-hour program has two parts: the daily presentation in the AWC Visitor Education Center followed by a guided tour through treatment areas of the hospital. Up-close encounters with Animal Ambassadors are included along the way. These tours resumed Jun 1 and will be offered Mon through Fri at 12:30 p.m. At all times, masks must be worn. Each tour is limited to eight people and advance registration is required. Program cost is $25 per person and includes General Admission to the AWC Visitor Education Center and the daily presentation. The program is open to all, but not recommended for children under the age of 13. Tours are subject to modification or cancellation based on animals being treated.
The J.N. “Ding” Darling National Wildlife Refuge on Sanibel will offer free summer tours from Jun 20 through Aug 7. There is no set schedule, so monitor the refuge’s Eventbrite page at 
It was great to see a friendly face on the cover of the May-June Issue of Realtor® Magazine. It was none other than a Florida Realtors® Audition Panel colleague, Adam Gurske from Matchmaker Realty of Alachua County which is in Gainesville. He is one of the young real estate practitioners selected for the 2021 Class of 30 Under 30 for their resilience and adaptability during rapidly changing conditions that have forced a quick rethinking of business practices. “Adaptability is one trait that Adam’s ten years in the business have helped him hone. His Mom has been the area’s association executive for 30 years, so Adam has grown up in the business. At 29, he is active in his local association, a longtime board member of a local nonprofit that is dedicated to helping homeless families, all while being a multi-million $ producer with 28 transaction sides last year. If you ever need real estate assistance in Gainesville, I encourage you to contact Adam, and mention SanibelSusan. He is a solid hardworking smart young man.
Good advice in the recent RSPS (Resort & 2nd-Home Specialist) Newsletter: “With the interest in vacation rentals rising across the U.S., owners of second homes may be tempted to make that property available for rent. There are 
Speaking of RSPS (Resort & 2nd-Home Specialist), this week I updated that module for the islands specialist designation classes that are offered annually by the Sanibel & Captiva Islands Association of Realtors®. Earning the designation requires completion of 12 modules including this one. It was 2012 when I prepared that class for the first time. Time flies. Was not as much fun last year to teach it via Zoom. The class interaction, where we share experiences and advice, is the fun part. Wish me luck on Tuesday as I teach for the 9th year.
Here is the latest, right from the Conservation Foundation’s Wed update email:
Sanibel
Yesterday I also attended a Zoom class. First time offered by Florida Realtors® and by popular instructor and Realtor® friend, Patti Ketcham from Tallahassee, this class covered Florida’s two trust funds that are part of Florida’s Affordable Housing Act.
Below is our ad from today’s “Island Sun”.
Yesterday was the monthly membership meeting of the local Association of Realtors®. Speaker was Michael Nachef, Director of Government Relations for Lee Health. It was a Zoom meeting, apropos since Michael was calling from Tallahassee where Florida’s legislative session is wrapping up this week. His update on the pandemic offered some interesting info. Here are some takeaways:
This Wed, Apr 28, 2021, there were a total of 188 COVID patients in Lee Health hospitals. Compare this to the highest number in July 2020, when there were 360 patients. The low was in Oct 2020, when there were only 44 patients.
This week, the team and I are thankful that another listing is under contract and another closing finalized. Our remaining listings continue to get inquiries and good action. As inventory continues to dwindle, we hear the same news from friends in other vacation destinations.
On Tuesday, Florida’s Gov. DeSantis extended the state emergency order for another 60 days. Since March 2020, the Governor has been extending the original emergency order in 60-day increments. This order allows Florida to activate its emergency operations center, work with and ask for federal government assistance, and allowed deployment of the Florida National Guard to help.
This week, Sanibel’s State of Emergency also was extended for another week (or until May 4) by Mayor Holly Smith. The number of cases reported here from March 26, 2020 through April 28 is 250. Captiva’s cases total 12.
Who knew? This interesting tidbit in the May 2021 “FloridaRealtor®” magazine: “The United States is the second-most-affordable housing market in the world, according to comparethemarket.com. Researchers looked at average property price per square foot and average disposable income to calculate the cost per square foot as a percentage of annual income. No. 1? Turkey, followed by the United States, Russia, South Africa, and Mexico.”
On Tuesday, Sanibel’s State of Emergency due to COVID-19 again was extended another week (until April 27). Masks remain required in all businesses and outside where social distancing is not possible. Just one more case reported on Sanibel this week with a total of 249 cases from Mar 26, 2020 through Apr 21, 2021. Still just 11 on Captiva during the same timeframe.
With Florida’s vegetable growing season winding down, visitors and locals who enjoy the local farmers markets have one more month to visit them on the islands. Sanibel Farmers Market at City Hall is OPEN Sundays, 8-1 through May 30. Captiva Island Farmers Market at South Seas Island Resort is OPEN Tuesdays, 9-1 through May 25.
The other Local Roots markets at the Sanibel Outlets and on Boca Grande have already finished their season, while the Wednesday markets at Lakes Park and Thursday markets at Coconut Point will finish up next week (Apr 28 and 29).
Here in the office, teammates Dave, Elise, and I got our monthly progress report letter in the mail. Those again illustrate how inventory is dwindling. Our three remaining listings all had inquiries and showings this week, with more showings scheduled tomorrow during guest turns-overs.
The bank (where the buyer had done business for decades) provided written loan commitment weeks ago, but when it came time for them to issue loan documents to the title company, they denied the loan. I have never heard of this happening, but thankfully our seller is co-operative, is giving the embarrassed buyer more time, and the Sanibel-Captiva Community Bank has come to the rescue. David Wright and San-Cap Bank routinely lend all over the island and will get this one closed albeit with a bit of a delay.
“The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is in the process of developing a new Lake Okeechobee Regulation Schedule that will provide new guidance on how the Army Corps will manage water in Lake O for the different parts of South Florida’s complex water management system. The new schedule is called the Lake Okeechobee System Operating Manual, or LOSOM.
From SCCF’s Wednesday update: “The SCCF Marine Laboratory recently uploaded its extensive water quality data from Gulf waters off our islands into the Florida Department of Environmental Protection’s (FDEP) Watershed Information Network database system. This is a major step forward so that the state can officially evaluate the Gulf of Mexico’s quality for management planning.
