June 1 was the official first day of Florida hurricane season. Right on time, the Pacific storm that passed the Yucatan this week, now is into the gulf and forecast to dump heavy rain on SW FL beginning today and continuing into tomorrow. After that, island weather likely will return to typical “rainy season” with off-and-on tropical showers possible most afternoons and evenings.
From now through fall, the islands enjoy many bright sunny days and excellent shelling (particularly after a summer storm), but this time of the year it is especially smart to keep an eye on the weather. It also pays to stock up on hurricane supplies during tax-free time, which is now through Jun 10. Qualifying disaster preparedness supplies include such items as generators, tarps, smoke and carbon monoxide detectors, fire extinguishers, flashlights, lanterns, batteries, weather radios, and for pets, portable kennels, beds, leashes, collars, and muzzles (some price limits apply).
In the world of island real estate, after a couple of news items below is the activity posted in the Sanibel & Captiva Multiple Listing Service since last Friday. On Jun 1, the May renters departed from our new canal-front listing in Sanibel Estates so Jim Anderson, JMA Photography, our long-time photographer was able to do his magic before the storm arrived.
There was no local Association of Realtors® Caravan meeting this week, but this morning I attended the Professional Development Committee meeting where we were busy finalizing 2022 classes and speaker schedules. I am also putting the finishing touches on the Resort & 2nd-Home Market class that I teach for the Association next week as one of the modules for the SCIS (Sanibel & Captiva Islands Specialist) designation.
Sanibel & Captiva Islands 2022 Real Estate Sales
Not totally unexpected is how quickly island sales have slowed. Even with a holiday weekend, the islands were quiet this week. Traffic was slim to none, with reported real estate sales about the same. It is another story about how busy it was on the causeway beaches, particularly on Sunday. There was no room for even a bird to light. Lots of people appeared to be enjoying the water and weather, but vehicles were parked within inches of each other, and jet skiers were zooming close to shore. Lee County certainly has their hands full monitoring those beaches.
Below is an update of Sanibel/Captiva inventory today, compared to sales year-to-date and last year. (Info from Sanibel & Captiva Islands Multiple Listing Service as of Jun 3, 2022. For sale & under contract average prices are based on asking prices.)
|#||Avg $||DOM||#||Avg $||DOM||#||Avg $||DOM|
|Sold to-date 2022||79||1,120,191||41||109||1,714,678||65||18||607,500||245|
|#||Avg $||DOM||#||Avg $||DOM||#||Avg $||DOM|
|Sold to-date 2022||19||1,346,343||44||16||5,573,906||152||0||N/A||N/A|
Florida Realtors® 2022 Budget Victories
This week, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed the $109.9 billion 2022-23 state budget into law which includes four Realtor® legislative priorities from the 2022 session.
First, it solidifies the $100 million allocated for the new Hometown Heroes Housing Program, meaning that July1, down payment and closing cost assistance will be available for eligible hometown heroes such as nurses, teachers, firefighters, law enforcement offices, and other critical front-line workers.
The budget signing also means that $262 million will be available at the start of the new fiscal year for the State Housing Initiatives Partnership (SHIP) and State Apartment Incentive Loan programs (SAIL). These existing affordable-housing programs have been a long-standing priority for Florida Realtors® as they provide home ownership and rental assistance to low-income Floridians.
On the environmental side, the budget signing locks in more than $1.6 billion for water quality and other related projects including:
- $500+million for Everglades Restoration
- $558+million for target water quality improvements
- $75 million for springs restoration
- $50 million for Florida beaches
- $20 million for Biscayne Bay
- $125 million for the Wastewater Grant Program
- $500+million for the Resilient Florida Program.
The budget also includes $500K to help the Department of Business and Professional Regulations combat unlicensed real estate activity.
Florida Real Estate Market Shows Signs of Cooling
Below is a transcript of the Market Update video posted May 19 on Florida Realtors® by Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor:
“The red-hot resale market for housing in Florida finally showed some legitimate signs of cooling in April, based on the latest monthly housing statistics from Florida Realtors. Let’s start by looking at closed sales of existing single-family homes, which were down over 15% compared to April of last year. That’s a significantly larger decline than we saw in March, when closings were only down a little over 6% year-over-year. “What happened in April?” you ask? Well, it’s not so much what happened in April so much as what was happening in February and March. Remember, most home sales that close each month, particularly the majority that are purchased with mortgage financing, went under contract one or two months prior to closing. So, the closed sale statistics reported each month are always impacted by market conditions from one or two months prior, as well. And what was going on in February and March when so many of April’s closings were going under contract? The answer, of course, is a rapid rise in mortgage rates.
“At the beginning of every week, Freddie Mac surveys mortgage lenders across the U.S. and reports the average national rate for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage on Thursday. For most weeks in 2021, they reported an average rate between 2.8 and 3.2%. These consistently low rates were essentially rocket fuel for the housing market and led to one of the best years for home sales of all time. But mortgage rates started rising in earnest in 2022. At the beginning of February, Freddie reported an average rate of about 3.6%–a little higher than the 3.2% rate it reported at the beginning of January. But by the beginning of March, the average rate had reached 3.8%, and by April, it was up almost a full percentage point further, to 4.7%. It was this huge increase during March that really had a significant impact on closings in April.
“Our new pending sales statistic, which is simply a count of how many homes went under contract each month, is typically a good leading indicator of closed sales a month or two down the road. This statistic has been showing double-digit year-over-year percent declines since February, so it’s not just the theory that rising rates dampen housing demand that has led us to expect lower levels of closings this spring, it’s been present in the numbers, as well. New pending sales are not a perfect forecaster of future closed sales, signed contracts do not always guarantee a successful closed sale, but they are one of the better ones. And with mortgage rates now consistently above 5%, it’s not surprising that new pending sales of single-family homes were down almost 14% in April. So, we might expect closings to be weak on a year-over-year basis over the next month or two, as well.
“Weak” is a relative term here, obviously. As I said earlier, 2021 was characterized by near-record low mortgage rates that allowed for a huge surge in homebuying demand. So, it’s simply unreasonable for us to expect that the market will perform just as well this year now that we are in a higher interest rate environment. The mortgage rates on home sales that closed this April are much more akin to what rates were at in 2018. And compared to April 2018, the number of single-family closings in April of this year was up 11%. April closings were also 4% higher than they were in 2019, when rates were on the way down. So, it all depends on your perspective. Closed sales are performing at about the level they were leading up into the pandemic, despite higher mortgage rates, low supply, and much, much higher sale prices.
“The median sale price for closed existing single-family homes finally eclipsed the $400,000 mark in April. It came in at $410,000, which is almost 22% higher than it was one year ago. While that’s bad news for prospective buyers, once again we need to remind ourselves that many home sales that closed in April actually had their prices determined when they went under contract a month or two earlier, just as rates were really starting to take off. In the longer run, price growth should start to moderate in response to these higher rates, so this is an important statistic to keep your eye on over the next few months as an increasing share of sellers will inevitably have to start adjusting their expectations to a degree.
“If you’re in the real estate business, though, the good news is that the lower level of sales in April was mostly offset by this year’s higher sale prices, although not completely. The statewide dollar volume of closed existing single-family home sales in April was down 4.5% compared to a year ago. Year-to-date, however, single-family dollar volume is still up 6.4%.
“Although we’re seeing fewer sales relative to last year, the number of existing homes being listed for resale this year has remained relatively consistent in 2022 compared to recent years. There were more new listings of single-family homes this April than in April of either 2018, 2019, or 2020, and they were only down by less than 2% compared to April of 2021. Year-to-date, new listings are down only 0.5% compared to a year ago. This has allowed inventory levels to finally start creeping up a little bit. As of the end of April, the statewide inventory of existing single-family homes for sale was up close to 7% year-over-year. That’s a big deal since it represents the first year-over-year increase in Florida’s single-family inventory since June of 2019. Granted, we still have over 60% fewer single-family listings than we did at this time two years ago, but we’ll take any victory on inventory that we can get at this point. It’s still a long road back to a balanced market.
“Now that we’ve covered the resale market for single-family homes, let’s look at the stats for homes in the condo and townhouse category. If you regularly watch our videos here, you know that annual condo and townhouse sales were up significantly in 2021. Single-family sales were up by almost 13%, but that was nothing compared to condos and townhouses’ increase of over 34%. The big reason why that happened is that our single-family inventory was mostly depleted during the second half of 2020. So, when 2021 came around, relative to single-family homes, we had a fairly abundant amount of condo and townhouse inventory. With housing demand as hot as ever and home prices rapidly rising, condo and townhouse sales went through the roof.
“By the beginning of 2022, though, condo and townhouse inventory levels were largely depleted, as well. As of the end of April, we’re at 1.3 months supply of inventory for this property type category, not much more than the 1.1 months supply of single-family inventory. As a result, condo and townhouse sales are constrained this year in a way they were not one year ago, so the decline in sales has been more severe than on the single-family side. Closed sales in April were down almost 21%, while new pending sales were down almost 24%. The levels of closings and new contracts, however, remain above where they were at this time in 2019, the last normal year for our housing market ahead of the pandemic.
“The median sale price for condos and townhouses in April was $310,000, a year-over-year increase of 24%. This year’s higher price point led to a decline in dollar volume of only about 8% relative to a year ago when condo and townhouse sales were at their hottest.
“Many of the factors impacting Florida’s housing market right now are macroeconomic factors, in other words, phenomena that are broadly impacting the housing market nationally, not just here in Florida. Rising interest rates and high inflation are two prime examples. But on a state-specific basis, Florida currently has some great things going for it that continue to make our state an attractive destination for new residents, investors, and second-home buyers. Our lack of income tax, access to beautiful beaches, and warm, sunny weather have always been a great asset, but they’ve become even more attractive in today’s work-from-anywhere world.
“Moreover, Florida’s economy has seen one of the strongest recoveries of any state over the past two years. But just as all states are different, so are all the markets within our state….”
How Did Sanibel Home & Condo Sales Compare in April 2022?
Since it also is important to analyze local market statistics, not just understand what is happening at the state-level, below is the info collected by Florida Realtors® (SunStats) for April sales on Sanibel.
Single-family homes – comparing April 2022 with April 2021, the number of home sales was down 68.1% (from 47 sales to 15). Median sale price, however, was up 32.1%, from $1,050,000 to $1,387,500.
Condos – also comparing April 2022 to 2021, the number of condo sales was down 55% (from 40 to 18), while median sale price was up 103.9%, from $675,000 to $1,376,500.
In April 2022, 73.3% of the single-family home sales and 83.3% of the condo sales were cash.
Sanibel & Captiva Islands Multiple Listing Service Activity May 27 – June 3, 2022
1 new listing: Tarpon Beach #105 2/2 $1,297,555.
1 price change: Gulfside Place #101 3/3 now $2.495M.
1 new sale: Sanibel Arms #G8 2/2 listed at $1.295M.
5 closed sales: Coquina Beach #5A 2/2 $779K, Sanctuary Golf Villages I #5-3 2/2.5 $859K, Island Beach Club #P4E 2/2 $1.749M, Somerset #A301 3/2.5 $3M, Sedgemoor #101 3/3.5 $3.895M.
5 new listings: 647 Rabbit Rd 3/2 $819K, 446 Lake Murex Cir 2/2 $949K, 947 Lindgren Blvd 3/2 $1.5459M, 839 Birdie View Pt 3/3 $1.995M, 931 S. Yachtsman Dr 4/3.5 $1.995M (our listing).
3 price changes: 1012/1014 East Gulf Dr 4/2 duplex now $1.049M, 5802 Sanibel-Captiva Rd 3/3.5 now $1.39M, 2729 Wulfert Rd 4/4.5 now $1.998M.
No new sales.
10 closed sales: 778 Cardium St 3/3 $853K, 1667 Sabal Sands Rd 3/3 $1.05M, 3910 Coquina Dr 3/2 $1.299M, 750 Oliva St 3/2 $1.425M, 788 Birdie View Pt 3/3 $2.1M, 746 Windlass Way 4/3 $2.15M, 489 Sawgrass Pl 5/5 $2.183M, 1679 Hibiscus Dr 3/2 $2.495M, 474 Lagoon Dr 3/3.5 $2.5M, 6176 Henderson Rd 4/3 $2.8M.
Nothing to report.
No new listings or price changes.
1 new sale: Sunset Beach Villas #2235 4/3 listed at $1.979M.
No closed sales.
1 new listing: 16151 Captiva Dr 7/7.5 $13.875M.
No price changes.
1 new sale: 11524 Andy Rosse Ln 5/5.5 listed at $3.995M.
1 closed sale: 16989 Captiva Dr 4/4.5 $5.823M.
Nothing to report.
This representation is based in part on data supplied by the Sanibel & Captiva Islands Association of Realtors® Multiple Listing Service. Neither the association nor its MLS guarantees or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the association or its MLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. The information provided represents the general real estate activity in the community and does not imply that SanibelSusan Realty Associates is participating or participated in these transactions.
Stay dry this weekend & enjoy your week!
Til mext Friday… Susan Andrews, aka SanibelSusan