After a chilly Monday and Tuesday, likely the last days to wear light jackets until next winter, island weather this week has been almost picture-perfect – bright sunny days and moonlight nights. A little shower and a few clouds today is what similarly is expected through the holiday weekend with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 80’s.

 

There have been some complaints this week about traffic. We view that as an inconvenience that should disappear the snowbird head north.  It might be worse next week when Lee County Schools are out for spring break.

Sanibel traffic directors’ work is compounded when there are heavy bike-path traffic and joggers. Now is a good time to be extra vigilant on the roadways.

SanibelSusan Realty & Real Estate Happenings

This week, I heard more chatter from colleagues about sales slowing down and them not working with as many buyers this year. Others complained about their listings occupied with renters who have extended their 2016 stay because of the tough winter weather in 2015. Seems that many were not happy that it wasn’t spring when they went home.

The good news is that usually after “season”, many of those serious buyers return – those wanting investment property and were unable to view properties during the winter months of heavy rentals. In the meantime, here’s a quick update of Sanibel’s residential inventory today. Prices continue to swing up and the amount of inventory continues to swing down.

# For Sale: Condos = 102; Homes = 160

Average Asking Price:  Condo = $741,609; Home = $1,342,327

# Sales Pending: Condos = 36; Homes = 45

Average Asking Price Units Pending: Condos = $959,253; Homes = $1,108,893

# Sold & Closed This Year: Condos = 33; Homes = 37

Average Sale Price Sold This Year: Condos = $680,875; Homes = $957,740

#Sold & Closed in 2015: Condos = 160; Homes = 236

Average Sale Price Sold Last Year: Condos = $701,088; Homes = $912,744

The Sanibel and Captiva Islands Multiple System action this week follows a few news items below.

A Troubling Shortage of Homes

As a long-time fan of Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research at the National Association of REALTORS®, here’s his take on the housing as posted in his March column in “Realtor®Mag”:

“Inflation may be in check, but the lack of inventory around the country is fueling a sharp rise in housing cost.

“There is no inflation, says the federal government. The consumer price index rose by only 0.4% in 2015 so there will be no cost-of-living adjustment to Social Security checks this year. However, as most real estate professionals know, housing costs are still climbing. Rents rose at their highest pace in seven years and home prices nationally increased by 6%. That would be three times the pace of average wage growth. Housing costs are expected to keep rising in 2016 simply because not enough homes are being built.

“From 2009 to today, new construction of single-family homes, condominiums, and apartment units totaled 5.6 million. Over the same period, approximately 1.7 million housing units were deemed uninhabitable or obsolete and were demolished and removed from the housing stock. These two figures result in a net addition of 3.9 million housing units to the country’s stock. Is that adequate in light of 17.3 million additional people living in the country over the same period?

“Clearly, the answer is no. Given the average household size of 2.5 persons, a total of 6.9 million new housing units would be needed to accommodate the country’s rising population. The 3.9 million units that were actually created fall far short of the demand—by some 3 million homes.

“That explains why rental vacancies are falling and housing inventories are shrinking. Of course, local market conditions vary. States with declining populations, including Connecticut, Illinois, and West Virginia, may have a less pressing need for additional home construction. But those places are exceptions. Housing shortages are the rule in most states and there’s no reason to expect anything to change this year.

“There are essentially two major consequences of a persistent housing shortage: a continuing steep rise in housing costs and people needing to double or triple up to afford a home. Young adults may have to find multiple roommates or else live with their parents.

“That latter scenario is probably not what most young people dream about, but it’s what the American dream of home ownership could turn into if we don’t spur more housing development in the country soon.”

6 Ways to Explain Low Inventory

From “Daily Real Estate News” on Wednesday, this is a good summary about inventory:

“Everywhere you turn, there’s a new story about how the lack of homes on the market is driving up prices and driving buyers crazy. But what’s the reason behind this trend? There are a number of factors, according to a recent article at Real Estate Economy Watch….

“Many home owners are still underwater. One of five homeowners with a mortgage still doesn’t have enough equity to sell. This isn’t the same situation as we saw during the depths of the housing crisis, but it’s still making its mark on inventory levels. Although rising prices may slowly reduce the number of home owners who owe more than their property is worth, Real Estate Economy Watch predicts that significant numbers will continue to be equity-challenged for several years to come, especially in Arizona, California, Florida, and Nevada.

“Boom buyers are still holding out. About 16 million families bought homes in the peak of the boom around a decade ago, and many are still waiting around to make a profit, even if they aren’t underwater. Even if CoreLogic’s prediction that the national median price will reach the peak of 2007 in the next year or so does come to fruition, Real Estate Economy Watch says many of these peak buyers will have to wait another five years or more before they realize much profit on their homes.

“The inventory shortage is squeezing move-ups. Owners who may be ready to move into a larger or more expensive home are often considered hidden drivers of the market. But right now, price instability and the lack of available homes is causing this group to hold off. But Real Estate Economy Watch says that stability is coming, despite the inflationary impact of market shortages, and predicts that this “vicious cycle” will ease.

“Investors aren’t ready to sell single-family homes they’re renting. They’re making money from both rising rents and home price appreciation. And that’s why Real Estate Economy Watch cautions against assuming they’ll “sell their mini gold mines to homeowners anytime soon.” The upside? At least some young prospective owners have access to a relatively affordable alternative to apartments, where they can start families while they wait for entry-level homes to come on the market.

“New-home construction is still very low. It may be tempting to blame this on the builders, but Real Estate Economy Watch points out that after the crash in 2007, thousands of smaller builders closed down, and many of those who survived did so by selling off their inventories of prime real estate earmarked for future construction. They predict that builders will make a dent in the higher-tier housing soon, but that they would help the inventory problem more if they concentrated on the lower-end demand.

“Baby boomers are running behind. Everything from later retirement ages, longer careers, better health, and loss of household wealth/equity during the Great Recession have contributed to a slower-than-expected timeline for this generation. But Real Estate Economy Watch predicts that this will change as many must convert their equity into cash while they can still enjoy it, and says others won’t be able to afford the costs to retrofit current homes in order to age in place.”

Home Features Most Desired by Age

This article from the March 8, 2016 “Daily Real Estate News” has a few interesting tidbits. Nice also to know that a baby boomer is not a senior.

“Home buyers are demanding more home features that help them save energy and keep the home organized, a new study released by the National Association of Home Builders, “Housing Preferences of the Boomer Generation: How They Compare to Other Home Buyers” reveals.”

“However, the generations – millennials (born 1980 or later); Gen X’ers (born 1965-1979); baby boomers (born 1946-1964); and seniors (born 1945 or earlier) – do show some differences in what home features they value the most. In a nationwide survey.., NAHB pinpointed those differences and which features each generation most desires.

The following are the home features most wanted by each generation:

Millennials

• Laundry room
• Exterior lighting
• Living room
• Patio
• Front porch
• Both shower stall and tub in master bathroom
• Ceiling fan
• Hardwood on main floor
• Deck
• Energy Star-rated appliances
• Dining room

Gen X

• Laundry room
• Energy Star-rated appliances
• Exterior lighting
• Energy Star rating for entire home
• Energy Star-rated windows
• Ceiling fans
• Front porch
• Hardwood on main floor
• Patio
• Living room

Baby boomers

• Energy Star-rated appliances
• Energy Star rating for entire home
• Laundry room
• Energy Star-rated windows
• Exterior lighting
• A full bath on the main level
• Ceiling fan
• Insulation higher than required by code
• Patio
• Hardwood on the main floor

Seniors

• Laundry room
• Energy Star-rated appliances
• Energy Star rating for entire home
• A full bath on the main level
• Table space for eating in the kitchen
• Ceiling fan
• Double kitchen sink (side-by-side)
• Energy Star-rated windows
• Insulation higher than required by code”

Source: “Housing Preferences Across Generations (Part I),” National Association of Home Builders’ Eye on Housing Blog (March 7, 2016)

Sanibel & Captiva Multiple Listing Service Activity March 18-25, 2016

Sanibel

CONDOS

1 new listing: Seashells #14 2/2 $385K.

3 price changes: Donax Village #14 2/2 now $549K, Sunset South #15B 2/2 now $999K, Tanglewood #1A 3/2 now $1.247M.

7 new sales: Kimball Lodge #244 1/1.5 listed at $349K, Sunset South #4C 2/2 listed at $784K, Pointe Santo #C41 2/2 listed at $815K, Kimball Lodge #306 2/2 listed at $989K, Gulfside Place #117 2/2 listed at $1.285M, Kings Crown #105 3/2 listed at $1.289M, Gulfside Place #306 3/2 listed at $1.395M.

2 closed sales: Loggerhead Cay #202 2/2 $530K, Loggerhead Cay #223 2/2 $530K.

HOMES

6 new listings: 1772 Serenity Ln 3/2 $699K, 975 Sand Castle Rd 3/2 $769K, 998 Beach Rd 3/3 $929.9K, 2459 Harbour Ln $949K, 4155 Dingman Dr 3/3 $1.099M (short sale), 4995 Joewood Dr 4/3 $3.175M.

7 price changes: 9292 Belding Dr 3/2.5 now $459K, 5303 Ladyfinger Lake Rd 3/2 now $679K, 4215 Old Banyan Way 3/3 now $795K, 4775 Rue Helene 4/3 now $849K, 2010 Sunrise Cir 5/3 now $949.9K, 1665 Sabal Palm Dr 3/2 now $1.195M, 739 Pyrula Ave 3/3 now $1.245M.

5 new sales: 748 Martha’s Ln 3/2 listed at $509K, 656 Anchor Dr 3/2 listed at $595K, 958 Cabbage Palm Ct 2/2 listed at $599K, 1139 Buttonwood Ln 2/1 listed at $625K, 2518 Tropical Way Ct 3/3.5 listed at $2.395M.

2 closed sales: 1328 Seaspray Ln 4/4 $780K, 411 Lighthouse Way 4/3 $1.445M.

LOTS

1 new listing: 3965 Coquina Dr $399K.

3 price changes: 2400 Blue Crab Ct now $299K, 6505 Pine Ave now $895K, 6519 Pine Ave now $925K.

No new or closed sales.

Captiva

CONDOS

No new listings.

1 price change: Beach Homes #20 3/3 now $2.499M.

No new or closed sales.

HOMES

No new listings.

1 price change: 11530 Paige Ct 4/5.5 now $3.68M.

No new sales.

2 closed sales: 11461 Dickey Ln 3/2 $1.2M, 11521 Laika Ln 3/3 $1.25M.

LOTS

Nothing to report.

(This representation is based, in whole, or in part, on data supplied by the Sanibel & Captiva Islands Association of Realtors® or its Multiple Listing Service. Neither the association nor its MLS guarantees or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the association or its MLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. The information provided represents general real estate activity in the community and does not imply that SanibelSusan Realty Associates is participating or participated in these transactions.)

Happy Easter!

Susan Andrews, aka SanibelSusan